Market Forge
"Backtest your prediction market strategy before you trade — simulate your market-making logic against historical data so you know your edge is real before risking capital."
The Idea
Market Forge is an AI-powered backtesting simulator that lets traders model and optimize market-making strategies for prediction markets. Users define their bid-ask spread logic, edge assumptions, and capital constraints, then run historical simulations to measure profitability, drawdown, and fill rates before putting real money on the line.
Prediction markets like Polymarket have become serious venues for informed traders — but most tooling is borrowed from traditional finance and doesn't account for the unique mechanics of binary-outcome markets. Market Forge is built specifically for this space, modeling the probability dynamics, fee structures, and liquidity patterns that define whether a market-making strategy actually has edge.
Who It's For
Quantitative traders and prediction market enthusiasts who want to validate market-making strategies on platforms like Polymarket before deploying capital. Secondary: researchers and algorithmic trading hobbyists studying liquidity provision in event-driven markets.
What's Built
In Scope:
- Strategy configuration: define bid-ask spread, edge threshold, capital allocation, and max position size
- Historical simulation engine: run strategy against past market data with fill-rate modeling
- Performance dashboard: P&L curve, Sharpe ratio, max drawdown, fill rate, and win rate
- AI analysis: natural-language summary of strategy strengths, weaknesses, and suggested parameter adjustments
- Multiple strategy comparison: run two configurations side-by-side
Out of Scope (v1):
- Live trading integration or order placement
- Real-time market data feeds
- Portfolio-level optimization across multiple markets simultaneously
- Options or multi-leg strategy modeling